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Jan 30, 2013
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i think it will be equities for the next few years. >> rick santelli, that's what we've been seeing money coming out of fixed income. is this trade
i think it will be equities for the next few years. >> rick santelli, that's what we've been seeing money coming out of fixed income. is this trade
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Jan 4, 2013
01/13
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rick santelli at nyse. hi, rick. >> we were close to 197 1/2. we closed last week at 170. it's been 22 basis point week and for a while over a quarter point. that's pretty large. if you open the chart up, 194 is about the cusp. whether when we close today we are at highest yield since later may or late april. you can see that chart. now sometimes when the treasury market sells off aggressively, it even catches markets off guard. not only investors. think about high yield investment grade. if you look at the inest vmt grade index, you can see the knee jerk reaction is a narrowing of the spreads because corporates didn't sell off as aggressively or look at high yield, same dynamic. you have to monitor over the next day's weeks to see if catch up does incan occur. >> the fed president james bullard talking about when the feds will raise interest rates. here is what he said earlier to steve liesman on "power lunch." >> if you are close to 7%, then you are within a half point of your 6.5% on interest rate side. and i think clearly the intention is to pull back balance sheet pol
rick santelli at nyse. hi, rick. >> we were close to 197 1/2. we closed last week at 170. it's been 22 basis point week and for a while over a quarter point. that's pretty large. if you open the chart up, 194 is about the cusp. whether when we close today we are at highest yield since later may or late april. you can see that chart. now sometimes when the treasury market sells off aggressively, it even catches markets off guard. not only investors. think about high yield investment grade....
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Jan 28, 2013
01/13
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>> joining us john from cgfi group and rick santelli. rick, i'll go to you first. we're talk about moving treasuries. is 2% enough to push people in mass into equities? >> you know, i don't think so. i think the percentages are much higher, but it is a start. and keep in mind global inflows to equities global was about $55 billion. that was a record for january. if you look at global inflow of bond funds and bond etfs, it was a whisker under $30 billion. so there's still money going in, but not as much. and of course the anxiety of potentially healthy global economy is always going to give traders an excuse to try to sell what is close to some historically low levels of yield, high levels of price. >> yeah. and when you look at equities you see this huge move in the markets. are we taking a bit of a breather? jordan, how do you see it? >> i think it's been constrained. uncertain election and fiscal cliff. and all of a sudden people are starting to pay attention to the fact there are -- inflation's low. i think the market starts to run, forest run. >> not a lot of a
>> joining us john from cgfi group and rick santelli. rick, i'll go to you first. we're talk about moving treasuries. is 2% enough to push people in mass into equities? >> you know, i don't think so. i think the percentages are much higher, but it is a start. and keep in mind global inflows to equities global was about $55 billion. that was a record for january. if you look at global inflow of bond funds and bond etfs, it was a whisker under $30 billion. so there's still money going...
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Jan 31, 2013
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let's get to the cme group, rick santelli with the santelli exchange. rick? >> good morning, carl. lot of traders on this floor and many times i ask them what they think about the markets, and if you ask ten people, you get about 12 different opinions. we all know how that goes. forecasting is not easy, trying to pick where interest rates go in an hour, tomorrow, in a week, that's difficult. to try to do it for a year or years down the road, truly next to impossible, but when you invest for yourself, you might have an idea, but you're always going to remain fluid because if you're not fluid, and you don't ebb and flow, it isn't that you're a flip-flopper. when you're a trader the word flip-flop doesn't exist. either you're fluid or they carry you out. mutual funds, many of you are investors, some of you do some of it yourself, all of yourself but many farm some of this out, mutual funds. when you decide where to put your money you look at their forecasting how accurate is it. if they look like they're accurate and turns out they're not on a winning streak you can always move it. wh
let's get to the cme group, rick santelli with the santelli exchange. rick? >> good morning, carl. lot of traders on this floor and many times i ask them what they think about the markets, and if you ask ten people, you get about 12 different opinions. we all know how that goes. forecasting is not easy, trying to pick where interest rates go in an hour, tomorrow, in a week, that's difficult. to try to do it for a year or years down the road, truly next to impossible, but when you invest...
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Jan 18, 2013
01/13
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rick santelli is in chicago. hi, rick. >> thanks, jim. two-day chart of ten-year gives you the picture. yesterday was a pop in the equity markets. issues in europe. we touched at the top of the closing yield range around the 190s. here at 180, we're basically down several basis points on the day, but unchanged on the week. you see a boom very similar, pattern yesterday was a little bit different. it accelerated a bit to the downside and the yield in the mid-160s. this is a catch upprocess, so to speak. now, if we move to the foreign exchange side, bob was talking about what a great day japan had. and they did, unless you were long their currency. you can see, hey, we've breached 90. if you open the chart up, 30 months to the summer of 2010, it's been 30 months since we've had any closes with a 90 handle on that cross trade. does it end there? no, i could show you a variety of currencies against the yen. we'll pick the one we've been talking about for weeks and it's been a home run, the euro/yen. we're not at the best levels of the day, bu
rick santelli is in chicago. hi, rick. >> thanks, jim. two-day chart of ten-year gives you the picture. yesterday was a pop in the equity markets. issues in europe. we touched at the top of the closing yield range around the 190s. here at 180, we're basically down several basis points on the day, but unchanged on the week. you see a boom very similar, pattern yesterday was a little bit different. it accelerated a bit to the downside and the yield in the mid-160s. this is a catch...
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Jan 28, 2013
01/13
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. >> rick santelli, the yield is creeping higher and higher, doesn't it on the ten-year? we have big events culminating in the mother of all data, payroll. so i guess, no big bets either way? >> yes. you know, and we have the fed meeting. we have european employment. all of this will be important. but follow the money. always a simple rule. you always end up with the right answer this morning. charles bittermann. and if we have the bar chart, the month of january, 55 billion record amount of inflows in etfs and mfs on the equity side. that's you will you a need to know except one other thing. the last time that we were close to this, the record we usurp is february of 2000. many of these big months you see on that bar graph were followed by reversals and equities. is it happening this time? it is different it time. the fed, ecb, so much liquidity out there. but all we can get is three db minute test of 2%. it is the explosion on equities and maybe a little erosion on fixed income but money is still flowing in. >> as they say, it is always different this time. rick, good t
. >> rick santelli, the yield is creeping higher and higher, doesn't it on the ten-year? we have big events culminating in the mother of all data, payroll. so i guess, no big bets either way? >> yes. you know, and we have the fed meeting. we have european employment. all of this will be important. but follow the money. always a simple rule. you always end up with the right answer this morning. charles bittermann. and if we have the bar chart, the month of january, 55 billion record...
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Jan 16, 2013
01/13
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. >> thank you, rick santelli. shares of dell moving lower as more details emerging about the buyout talks emerging about the computer maker. what's striking, david, is so many people on wall street have estimates at what 9 company can be done at. >> it is not going to be 15, at least based on conversations i've had. details hard to come by until late yesterday. my sources indicating between 13.50, let's call it, and 14. that could change. but i think 14 certainly seen as the ceiling amongst the people i've spoken to involved in various parts of a complex deal, one driven by both the private equity firm of silver lake and more importantly by the man himself, that is michael dell. who will not only roll his 15-plus stake into any leverage buyout, but i am told as well will access fresh cash that he has outside of dell. not clear how much. to also aid in the equity raise, if you will. that equity raise had been a key question that i certainly had raised the math that it appeared they would have at least $4 billion, t
. >> thank you, rick santelli. shares of dell moving lower as more details emerging about the buyout talks emerging about the computer maker. what's striking, david, is so many people on wall street have estimates at what 9 company can be done at. >> it is not going to be 15, at least based on conversations i've had. details hard to come by until late yesterday. my sources indicating between 13.50, let's call it, and 14. that could change. but i think 14 certainly seen as the...
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Jan 15, 2013
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melissa lee, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you. let's get a check on the markets on the pack of the business inventories number. not much of a market reaction. fractional gains. this policy was the biggest move that we're seeing in the s&p 500 this year. >> if the s&p subpoena is down more than 47, 4.74, it is the biggest loss of the year. that's not saying much. but it's still the biggest loss for the nasdaq here today. >> it speaks volumes of what we see on a day-to-day basis. >> absolutely. >> we're seeing the biggest move in technology. that's mainly because of shares of apple here. >> let's look at what apple's done, falling below 488 a few moments ago, now back to 490. we're talking levels taking us back to february of 2012. 480 was the level on february 9th. so it's a good chance we're going to hang on to an 11-month low. we'll see. long day, still ahead. >> fitch ratings out with a warning that the united states could lose its aaa status even if the debt ceiling is averted. david joins us now live from london. david, good a
melissa lee, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you. let's get a check on the markets on the pack of the business inventories number. not much of a market reaction. fractional gains. this policy was the biggest move that we're seeing in the s&p 500 this year. >> if the s&p subpoena is down more than 47, 4.74, it is the biggest loss of the year. that's not saying much. but it's still the biggest loss for the nasdaq here today. >> it speaks volumes of what we see on a...
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Jan 14, 2013
01/13
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rick santelli in chicago. >> good morning, jim. i heard about bob talking about long in the tooth rally, bull market and fixed income. long in the tooth isn't a technical formation that will give you a great signal. we continue to only operate a ten-year, about eight basis points into the sell-off so far for 2013. closed last year at 176, hovering at 184. two-day chart of tens, look at a two-day chart of 30s. they're slipping a bit in yields, boosted by price. opening up to one-year chart on 30s, it really looks like a market that's rolling over. we're about a 1 1/2-week low yield on 10s, 30s, a little bit more formative on the comps, a little less than a week. but the same formation. now, let's look at the fx, where things are go, go, go. if you look at the euro/yen, you have to take the chart back to may of 2011 to see the last time at these levels. you double that when you're looking at the dollar/yen. you would have to go back to june, actually may of the previous year. so add an extra year. and if you just look at the euro aga
rick santelli in chicago. >> good morning, jim. i heard about bob talking about long in the tooth rally, bull market and fixed income. long in the tooth isn't a technical formation that will give you a great signal. we continue to only operate a ten-year, about eight basis points into the sell-off so far for 2013. closed last year at 176, hovering at 184. two-day chart of tens, look at a two-day chart of 30s. they're slipping a bit in yields, boosted by price. opening up to one-year chart...
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Jan 30, 2013
01/13
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is you study the gdp report, rick santelli is at in chicago. >> a lot of u-turns going on. obviously there's a bit of a disconnect between what's going on in the equity complex and what's going on with one measure of the economy at least in the form of gdp. it's showing up in the fixed-income markets and currency markets as well. we'll get an interday of 5s. negative gdp, fourth quarter, it moved down to 86 basis points. look at it now, it's at 90. look at a 10-year, around a 197. it's back up to 201. look at the 30-year, it moved down around 316. it's now at 319. the point of the story is, if there's a market momentum going on, mostly predicated on stocks, yesterday was a historic number of puts in the treasury complex. so this morning everybody's running around after the number going, wow, what a contrarian indicator it was. but don't look for the notion of selling treasuries or buying equities to go away just because of the gdp number. on currencies, it's even more convoluted. look at the interday of the dollar index. jim's pointed out, you think this is going to make th
is you study the gdp report, rick santelli is at in chicago. >> a lot of u-turns going on. obviously there's a bit of a disconnect between what's going on in the equity complex and what's going on with one measure of the economy at least in the form of gdp. it's showing up in the fixed-income markets and currency markets as well. we'll get an interday of 5s. negative gdp, fourth quarter, it moved down to 86 basis points. look at it now, it's at 90. look at a 10-year, around a 197. it's...
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Jan 9, 2013
01/13
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rick santelli in chicago. go ahead, rick. >> thanks, jim. before we get to the charts, i didn't put a currency chart up, but obviously the dollar and many currencies are resuming, upward trajectory against the yen. keep a close eye on the 88 level of the dollar/yen. two-day chart of 10s clearly shows you we're losing altitude in terms of higher rates, lower prices. as a matter of fact, one of the reasons many are now putting forth that we had so much selling pressure early in the year and towards the end of last year was the huge corporate issuance calendar. about $15 billion yesterday. let's look at the markets from that perspective. if you look at the lqd etf and look back to november, you can clearly see that it is definitely not holding up towards the highs. but if you look at the high yield i yielding, different story. even though corporates are moving very well, in terms of issuance, there still seems to be the reach for yield propensity associated with the junk/high yield. if you look at it from a spread perspecti perspective, thank y
rick santelli in chicago. go ahead, rick. >> thanks, jim. before we get to the charts, i didn't put a currency chart up, but obviously the dollar and many currencies are resuming, upward trajectory against the yen. keep a close eye on the 88 level of the dollar/yen. two-day chart of 10s clearly shows you we're losing altitude in terms of higher rates, lower prices. as a matter of fact, one of the reasons many are now putting forth that we had so much selling pressure early in the year and...
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Jan 29, 2013
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rick santelli here with today's rendition of the exchange. you know, the fed's exit most likely is going to be very messy. we'll get to that in a minute. it's almost a rhetorical issue. the exit seems like a star wars notion. an exit far, far away. you know, there never seems to be an expiration date on fauly y ideas. let's look at some of the most recent. we reupped subsidies on wind energy. i have nothing against wind energy. as a matter of fact it is one of my favorite 7th century inventions because that's about the time the first wind mill was used to generate power. you know what? i don't know but i think it's been a long time. i don't know if that subsidy will ever end. i can't remember how many decades we subsidized wool after the civil war ended or the electric car. the first electric car was officially marketed in 1897. here we are looking at companies continuing on the dime of the government to say, yes, it's a plausible idea. in december, 2007, we officially, officially went into recession which means we are now in our sixth year,
rick santelli here with today's rendition of the exchange. you know, the fed's exit most likely is going to be very messy. we'll get to that in a minute. it's almost a rhetorical issue. the exit seems like a star wars notion. an exit far, far away. you know, there never seems to be an expiration date on fauly y ideas. let's look at some of the most recent. we reupped subsidies on wind energy. i have nothing against wind energy. as a matter of fact it is one of my favorite 7th century inventions...
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Jan 11, 2013
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rick santelli is in chicago. >> jim, lots of extremes, once again, but not exclusively. look at the 24-hour chart at 30-year. you can see the yields are up. last week, where do we close the 30-year at 310. let's move to the ten-year. ten-year last week was at 190. one basis point higher. not interday, close. 191. we've giving that a run for the money. as you open up the chart, you can see, should that happen, it will be a fresh 7 1/2-month high yield for the 10. 30-year a little less developed on the comp. foreign exchange, look at the dollar/yen. wow, it is unreal. i get palpitations. this is a currency move like i haven't seen in a long time. another fresh 29 1/2-month high on the dollar/yen. it isn't just the dollar benefit side. it's really the yen side that's driving it. similar chart, except ashaved a year off. the comps are a little more aggressive on the dollar side. let's go back to the euro, this time let's do the euro versus the dollar. we can see 7 1/2-month high on that trade. it's going to be very fascinating to continue to monitor the relationship between,
rick santelli is in chicago. >> jim, lots of extremes, once again, but not exclusively. look at the 24-hour chart at 30-year. you can see the yields are up. last week, where do we close the 30-year at 310. let's move to the ten-year. ten-year last week was at 190. one basis point higher. not interday, close. 191. we've giving that a run for the money. as you open up the chart, you can see, should that happen, it will be a fresh 7 1/2-month high yield for the 10. 30-year a little less...
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Jan 8, 2013
01/13
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rick santelli joins us from the cme in chicago as well. steve what are you watching? >> first i'm watching this increase we've had in the ten-year yield which has gone up as you know, 10, 15 basis points over the past several weeks. >> 1.9%. >> right, right. but we haven't seen it really in the 30-year mortgage. so i thought i would draw on, you know, rick's expertise and our expertise from our co-host this morning to try to get an idea for the direction. just want to show you some charts here. first thing is you'll see the 30-year rate remaining pretty much flat. and of course the federal reserve is going to come along and buy a whole bunch of mortgages this year. and still buy treasuries as well. what you see is the spread, i guess that's the mortgage application number that was going to be the second one showing its decline. you could see it down despite rates being low. and there's the one. there's the yields going up on the ten-year, and there's the mortgage rate being flat, so the question for individuals out there, is this the time to get in before the 30-year
rick santelli joins us from the cme in chicago as well. steve what are you watching? >> first i'm watching this increase we've had in the ten-year yield which has gone up as you know, 10, 15 basis points over the past several weeks. >> 1.9%. >> right, right. but we haven't seen it really in the 30-year mortgage. so i thought i would draw on, you know, rick's expertise and our expertise from our co-host this morning to try to get an idea for the direction. just want to show you...
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Jan 30, 2013
01/13
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. >> if i was rick santelli, i'd walk off the stage i'm so angry. if i were rick. just outrageous. >> when you see zandi ferro his brow. you know what's coming? 800 billion ids new stimulus. >> all the gdps before positive, those are the ones more accurate. if there's a silver lining in this number, buying growth, buying growth is not a good way to go because eventually you end up getting the bill. it's called an iou! >> rick, deal with this one fact -- >> put this one into gold. >> i'm not spinning nothing into gold. the things that matter most in the economy, business spending and consumer spending both got better compared to the fourth quarter. >> why don't we just have those numbers and not have gdp then, steve! >> you can look at anything you want. >> i'm looking at gdp. >> one of the brightest guys in chicago, you are free, rick. >> how many people are looking for a recession? that's why surveys don't mean anything. >> folks at home can play this game. >> you want to see the reality. this reality the economy is growing between 2 and 2.5% what it's been growin
. >> if i was rick santelli, i'd walk off the stage i'm so angry. if i were rick. just outrageous. >> when you see zandi ferro his brow. you know what's coming? 800 billion ids new stimulus. >> all the gdps before positive, those are the ones more accurate. if there's a silver lining in this number, buying growth, buying growth is not a good way to go because eventually you end up getting the bill. it's called an iou! >> rick, deal with this one fact -- >> put this...
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Jan 8, 2013
01/13
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first, rick santelli is working on something for a little bit later on in the program. >> in about 15 minutes we'll have jim bianco. he'll help me get out the broom and sweep out the clutter of conventional wisdoms. sometimes markets are a lot better than you think. come back in about 15 minutes. u make 70,000 trades a second... ♪ reach one customer at a time? ♪ or help doctors turn billions of bytes of shared information... ♪ into a fifth anniversary of remission? ♪ whatever your business challenge, dell has the technology and services to help you solve it. whatever your business challenge, we asked total strangers to watch it for us. thank you so much. i appreciate it. i'll be right back. they didn't take a dime. how much in fees does your bank take to watch your money? if your bank takes more money than a stranger, you need an ally. ally bank. your money needs an ally. >>> most of the country's 160 million workers are seeing smaller paychecks this year, as the fiscal cliff brought the payroll tax cut to an end. economists and retailers are seeing whether retailers will take
first, rick santelli is working on something for a little bit later on in the program. >> in about 15 minutes we'll have jim bianco. he'll help me get out the broom and sweep out the clutter of conventional wisdoms. sometimes markets are a lot better than you think. come back in about 15 minutes. u make 70,000 trades a second... ♪ reach one customer at a time? ♪ or help doctors turn billions of bytes of shared information... ♪ into a fifth anniversary of remission? ♪ whatever your...
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Jan 7, 2013
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cnbc's rick santelli, options action contributor scott nation join us from the cme in chicago. on set this morning. scott nation. got to start with you, get your feelings on whether with the six, you know, being pretty quiet and a lot of us like to climb a wall of worry and maybe the complacency goes up as we get towards the high end of the range, do we keep moving higher to get the dow up to five-year high as well for example? >> the vix would absolutely say yes. i mean it got crushed last week. and it was probably overdone. almost certainly overdone down 37% in about three days. i think the last week action in the vix was most of the vix dropped in a week in about 20 years. and with a vix that low there's certainly a ton of complacency. there's no fear. that's overdone. i mean with the s&p at 1460, as we go into earnings season, i would think that you would have to at least be a little worried. last earnings cycle, october, was not particularly good for the s&p. dropped about 2% during the course of october. and while we're past some of the worst of the political problems, an
cnbc's rick santelli, options action contributor scott nation join us from the cme in chicago. on set this morning. scott nation. got to start with you, get your feelings on whether with the six, you know, being pretty quiet and a lot of us like to climb a wall of worry and maybe the complacency goes up as we get towards the high end of the range, do we keep moving higher to get the dow up to five-year high as well for example? >> the vix would absolutely say yes. i mean it got crushed...